Belgian military spending: A narrative of decline, stagnation, and recent reversal

The trajectory of Belgian defence spending from the end of the Cold War in 1990 to the present day is a compelling case study of how a small, highly globalized nation navigates its defence policy in response to shifting economic, security, and political landscapes. In this article we provide both a historical overview of Belgian defence spending after the Cold War and a comparison with other countries. It is a narrative of decline, stagnation, and a recent dramatic reversal. The period from 1990 to 2014 was defined by the economic imperative of fiscal austerity, which allowed governments to utilize the "peace dividend" to divert resources from defence to other government spending. This trajectory was altered by the geopolitical realities of 2014 and, most notably, 2022. Russia's invasion of Ukraine served as the catalyst that realigned the three key determinants, i.e., economic, political, and security, in favour of increased military expenditure. Moreover, Belgium not only increased military spending quantitatively but also qualitatively reaching NATO’s 20% major equipment and associated research and development investment benchmark.