Early citation dynamics and predictors of time to first citation in Ecuadorian medical publications: a survival analysis of research visibility

Background Citation-based indicators are widely used to assess scientific impact, yet they often overlook the temporal dynamics of knowledge dissemination. Time to first citation has gained relevance as an indicator of early research visibility, particularly in emerging research systems. Objective To analyze time to first citation of Ecuadorian medical publications and identify publication characteristics associated with citation timing using a survival analysis approach. Methods A scientometric study was conducted on Ecuadorian medical publications indexed between 2015 and 2024, with citation follow-up through December 31, 2024. Descriptive statistics summarized publication characteristics and citation counts at 2 and 5 years. Time to first citation was analyzed using Kaplan–Meier estimators and Cox proportional hazards regression models, accounting for right-censored data. Results A total of 3,968 publications were included. Most articles were published in open access journals (63.0%) and involved international collaboration (69.3%). Publications were predominantly in English (85.1%). Most records were original research articles (2,917; 73.5%), while 597 (15.0%) were review articles; article type information was unavailable for 454 records (11.4%). The median number of cumulative citations was 3 (IQR 1–7) at 2 years and 6 (IQR 3–14) at 5 years. Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that approximately 50% of articles received their first citation within the first year, and most were cited within 4 years. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, international collaboration ( HR = 0.81; 95% CI : 0.67–0.97), non-English language ( HR = 0.53; 95% CI : 0.42–0.65), original article type ( HR = 1.40; 95% CI : 1.09–1.79), and number of authors ( HR = 1.001; 95% CI : 1.001–1.002) were significantly associated with time to first citation, whereas open access status was not independently associated with citation timing after adjustment. Conclusions Ecuadorian medical publications demonstrated relatively rapid early citation uptake. Publication language, article type, international collaboration, and authorship characteristics were associated with time to first citation. These findings should be interpreted cautiously given the observational design and limitations in metadata completeness. The study highlights structural factors that may influence early research visibility in emerging research systems.