Ovarian failure risk in post-pubertal patients with cancer: a prognostic model

Aim: To develop a predictive model for ovarian failure (OF) after chemotherapy in young post-pubertal women with cancer. Methods: Retrospective, monocentric cohort study including 348 patients referring to the Oncofertility Unit of San Raffaele Hospital (Milan, Italy) from August 2011 to January 2020. A predictive model was constructed by multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analysis. Results: Data about menstrual function resumption were available for 184 patients. The best predictive model for OF was identified by the combination of age; number of chemotherapy lines; vincristine, adriamycin, ifosphamide/adriamycin, ifosphamide; capecitabine; adriamycin, bleomycine, vinblastine, doxorubicin (area under the curve = 0.906; CI 95% 0.858–0.954; p = 0.0001). Conclusions: The model predicts the probability of loss of ovarian function at cancer diagnosis and with every change of treatment.