Agroclimatic Hazards and Dairy Farming in Wisconsin

Recent experiences of Wisconsin dairy farmers with flooding and drought, among other climatic hazards, have resulted in substantial crop losses for a farming population that is already declining because of various economic circumstances. The salience of agroclimatic hazards and responses of dairy farmers to them may well determine long-term viability of family farm. Twothirds of farmers surveyed believed that climate is changing, and one-third perceived continued experience with climatic variability as a threat to their occupation. CLIMATIC change is a source of pessimism among many Wisconsin dairy farmers. The toll on farm income from climatic hazards has been large. Flooding during summer of 1993 caused an estimated $800 million in agricultural losses in state (Heinrichs 1993). Five years previously Wisconsin farmers had experienced their most severe drought in a halfcentury, with crop losses totaling $1.3 billion (Wisconsin Department of Administration 1989). These events contrasted sharply with generally favorable descriptions of agricultural conditions in Wisconsin. This article examines effects of agroclimatic hazards on dairy farmers in Wisconsin, a major producing state of America's dairyland. Most natural-hazards research has focused on rapid-onset, extreme events and largely ignored climatic hazards other than drought (Riebsame 1985). However, threat that global warming may result in an increased incidence of weather extremes and disasters is a challenge to redirect focus of research to climatic hazards (Mitchell and Ericksen 1992). Many questions remain to be answered about importance of agroclimatic hazards to farmers in contrast with roles of other stresses they face as their numbers decline. By examining climatic hazards farmers face in a place and in context of overall threats, this article seeks to better characterize importance and salience of agroclimatic hazards to farmers. The perspective is consistent with approach that examines the exogenous factors that interact with and modify components of hazard (Mitchell, Devine, and Jagger 1989, 406). RECENT WISCONSIN WEATHER Wisconsin has experienced wide-ranging climatic extremes since 1988. Severe-to-extreme drought conditions persisted during 1988, with both * Surveys were funded by University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh Faculty Development Research Board. * DR. CROSS is a professor of geography at University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh, Oshkosh, Wisconsin 54901. Copyright ? 1994 by American Geographical Society of New York This content downloaded from 157.55.39.104 on Mon, 20 Jun 2016 06:03:39 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms THE GEOGRAPHICAL REVIEW southwestern and southeastern regions of state recording their smallest April-to-August precipitation since 1895 (U.S. Department of Commerce 1989). In contrast, widespread flooding occurred during 1993, with statewide average precipitation for April through July 153 percent of normal. Southwestern Wisconsin experienced its third wettest June and second wettest July in ninety-nine years. The average June 1993 rainfall in that portion of state was 216 percent of normal, following April and May rains that were 172 percent of normal (Knox 1994). Extremes were even greater for specific stations, and many locations reached or exceeded their normal mean annual precipitation by end of July (Wahl, Vining, and Wiche 1993). Summer temperatures also varied widely between 1988 and 1993. During 1988 six of nine agricultural reporting districts in state had their hottest June-to-August mean temperatures in more than ninety years (U.S. Department of Commerce 1989). Conversely, mean temperature from June to August 1992 was second coolest since 1895. Frost was reported throughout Wisconsin on 20-21 June 1992. Statewide mean temperature during May-to-September growing season was 1.5? C below average during 1992 and 0.6? C below average during 1993 (Wisconsin Crop Weather 1992-1993). Soil-moisture conditions, defined by Palmer Index, during recent growing seasons have ranged from extreme drought to extreme moist spell. Although most severe drought conditions and precipitation shortages generally occurred in 1988 and 1989, severe drought was experienced during summers of 1991 and 1992 and moderate drought during peak of growing season throughout southern two-thirds of state. Total precipitation from May through June 1992 was lowest on record at several locations in southwestern and east-central Wisconsin (Knox 1993). On Palmler Index any value in excess of +4.0 is an extreme moist spell; values in southwestern Wisconsin during summer 1993 rose as high as +7.2. Seven agricultural reporting districts recorded values in this wettest category during that summer (Weekly Weather and Crop Report 1990-1993). Winter weather conditions were adverse from an agricultural perspective. Below-normal snowcover and frost depths can lead to winterkill of alfalfa and winter wheat. Both formation of impervious ice sheets as a result of a winter thaw followed by freezing conditions and excessive freeze-thaw cycles that destroy roots cause winterkill. Problems with below-normal snowcover were reported during winters of 1990-91 and 1991-92, and in southwestern Wisconsin half of alfalfa fields were lost during winter of 1992-93 (Wisconsin Crop Weather 1991-1993). Official agricultural statistics indicate that these weather vagaries had adverse effects on crop yields, specifically in 1988, 1992, and 1993. During 1988 corn harvest was 60 percent below that of 1987, which itself was less than that of previous year. Hay and alfalfa harvests during 1988 were 46 percent off total for 1987 and 45 percent of 1986 harvest. 278 This content downloaded from 157.55.39.104 on Mon, 20 Jun 2016 06:03:39 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms AGROCLIMATIC HAZARDS IN WISCONSIN Although harvests were generally good between 1989 and 1991, high losses occurred again in 1992 and 1993. The 1992 statewide harvests of hay and alfalfa were 71 and 63 percent of 1991 harvests, and 1992 corn harvest was 19 percent below that of 1991 (Wisconsin Agricultural Statistics Service 1993). Preliminary indications are that 1993 corn harvest was even worse30 percent below 1992 harvest and 43 percent below 1991 figure. Hay and alfalfa crops were below normal in both quantity and quality, with alfalfa production 4 percent worse than in dismal 1992 crop (Wisconsin Farm Reporter 1994).