A time varying AR coefficient model for modelling and simulating earthquake ground motion

A smoothness priors‐time varying autoregressive (AR) coefficient model method for the modelling of earthquake ground motion is shown. The method yields the instantaneous smoothed values of the AR coefficients and the instantaneous smoothed values of the innovations variance. These results in turn yield estimates of the instantaneous spectral density, the time varying covariance function and a simulation model for the ground motion data. An example of the application of the method to the analysis of an accelogram from the February 1971 San Fernando, California earthquake is shown.