Key result
Normal stress echocardiography shows a ~99% negative predictive value for 1-year major cardiac events.
Why the study?
Stress echocardiography is a useful diagnostic and prognostic test for significant CAD causing inducible myocardial ischemia, but its predictive accuracy for major cardiac events at this center needed assessment.
What is the predictive accuracy of stress echocardiography for major cardiac events at 1 year in patients referred for evaluation?
Observational (n=1,205)
No
What is the predictive accuracy of stress echocardiography for major cardiac events at 1 year in patients referred for evaluation?
Effect estimate: NPV 99.2%, PPV 86.7%
Stress echocardiography demonstrates an excellent negative predictive value (99.2%) for major adverse cardiac events at 1 year, supporting its utility for risk stratification and preoperative assessment.
Background: Stress echocardiography is a very useful diagnostic and prognostic test in the evaluation of significant coronary artery disease (CAD) causing inducible myocardial ischemia. Stress echocardiography has higher sensitivity and specificity as compared to exercise stress electrocardiography, and therefore, the guidelines recommend opting for the former modality over the latter. There are data suggesting that the incidence of major cardiac events is <1% within 12 months of a negative stress echocardiogram showing no reversible ischemia. The present audit was performed to assess the predictive accuracy of stress echocardiography at our center for major cardiac events during the first year of the test. Methods: Data for all patients referred for stress echocardiography between March 10, 2015 and December 31, 2018 were captured. All patients were contacted after 1 year to evaluate for any cardiac event (cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, need for revascularization or hospital admission related to acute coronary syndrome, and/or heart failure). Analysis was performed using the standard statistical definitions. Results: Baseline information was available for 1205 patients (mean age 59 years, 60% males). Of these, 416 (34.4%) had documented CAD; 223 (18.4%) underwent stress echocardiography for chest pain evaluation, whereas 273 (22.6%) underwent the test for preoperative assessment before a noncardiac surgery. Dobutamine stress echocardiography was the modality in 1145 (95.0%) patients; ultrasound contrast was used in 1154 (95.8%) patients. One-year event rates were available for 1024 patients. Stress echocardiography was normal in 1009 (98.5%) of these patients, eight of whom had a cardiac event during the subsequent year, yielding a negative predictive value (NPV) of 99.2%. The test was abnormal in 15 (1.5%) patients, but two of them were later found to have normal coronary arteries, yielding a positive predictive value (PPV) of 86.7%. The NPV and PPV were thus both at par or even higher than most other centers. The incidence of complications during stress echocardiography was extremely low. Conclusions: This audit shows that stress echocardiography at our center has an excellent safety as well as accuracy for predicting major adverse cardiac events during the subsequent year. Stress echocardiography could thus obviate the need for coronary angiogram and even revascularization in many patients. Our findings also reinforce the value of stress echocardiography as a greatly useful preoperative test for cardiac fitness in patients undergoing a major noncardiac surgery.
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Vyas et al. (2021) conducted an observational in Coronary artery disease (CAD) (n=1,205). Stress echocardiography was evaluated on Major cardiac events (cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, need for revascularization or hospital admission related to acute coronary syndrome, and/or heart failure) (NPV 99.2%, PPV 86.7%). Stress echocardiography demonstrated a negative predictive value of 99.2% and a positive predictive value of 86.7% for predicting major adverse cardiac events at 1 year.
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