Have Recent Earthquakes Exposed Flaws in or Misunderstandings of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis?

Research Article| September 01, 2012 Have Recent Earthquakes Exposed Flaws in or Misunderstandings of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis? Thomas C. Hanks; Thomas C. Hanks aU.S. Geological Survey, MS 977, 345 Middlefield Road, Menlo Park, California 94025thanks@usgs.gov Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Gregory C. Beroza; Gregory C. Beroza bDepartment of Geophysics, 397 Panama Mall, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305‐2215beroza@stanford.edu Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Shinji Toda Shinji Toda cDisaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611‐0011, Japantoda@rcep.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Seismological Research Letters (2012) 83 (5): 759–764. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220120043 Article history first online: 14 Jul 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Thomas C. Hanks, Gregory C. Beroza, Shinji Toda; Have Recent Earthquakes Exposed Flaws in or Misunderstandings of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis?. Seismological Research Letters 2012;; 83 (5): 759–764. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220120043 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search In a recent Opinion piece in these pages, Stein et al. (2011) offer a remarkable indictment of the methods, models, and results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). The principal object of their concern is the PSHA map for Japan released by the Japan Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP), which is reproduced by Stein et al. (2011) as their Figure 1 and also here as our Figure 1. It shows the probability of exceedance (also referred to as the "hazard") of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) intensity 6–lower (JMA 6–) in Japan for the 30‐year period beginning in... You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.