On Jan 30, 2020, WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, a month after COVID-19 was identified in Wuhan, China. By this point, several mathematical and computational models had already raised the alarm about the potential for the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) to cause a global pandemic and the dire consequences for public health should drastic action not be taken. During the emergence of a novel pandemic, predictive modelling is important in public health planning and response.
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Poletto et al. (2020) studied this question.
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