A 3-year prognostic score for adults with cystic fibrosis

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic progress in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF) has resulted in improved prognosis over the past decades. We aim to reevaluate prognostic factors of CF and provide a prognostic score to predict the risk of death or lung transplantation (LT) within a 3-year period in adult patients. METHODS: We developed a logistic model using data from the French CF Registry and combined the coefficients into a prognostic score. The discriminative abilities of the model and the prognostic score were assessed by c-statistic. The prognostic score was validated using a 10-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: The risk of death or LT within 3years was related to eight characteristics. The development and the validation provided excellent results for the prognostic score; the c-statistic was 0.91 and 0.90 respectively. CONCLUSION: The score developed to predict 3-year death or LT in adults with CF might be useful for clinicians to identify patients requiring specialized evaluation for LT.