Impact of Sea Level Rise on Seawater Intrusion into Coastal Aquifer

The anticipated climate change is likely to cause a sea level rise of about 50 cm by the year 2100, which may increase the extent of seawater intrusion into aquifers. This paper identifies the different scenarios of sea level rise and presents, using a numerical simulation model, a scientific and generic evaluation of the impact of sea level rise due to climate change and storm surge on a shallow coastal aquifer in Jamaica. The results of the simulation indicate that, for a confined alluvial aquifer comprising fine–medium sands and having a normal recharge rate, the sea level rise would not cause any significant landward movement of the dispersive seawater interface up to the year 2050. Moreover, for such an aquifer, a storm surge would also have no significant adverse impact. However, in both these cases, the concentration fields within the interface would undergo considerable change. It is hoped that this evaluation would help in decision making for the design of new ground-water based water supply systems in the small tropical islands.