Securitization of the Arctic region and the Northern Sea Route issue in the context of the changing balance of power

Amid rising military-political tensions in the Arctic, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is increasingly being drawn into the broader context of regional security and strategic competition. This study examines the integration of NSR-related issues into the securitization of the Arctic space against the backdrop of a shifting regional balance of power. Particular attention is paid to how securitization processes manifest in the approaches of Russia, the United States, and China toward the NSR, as well as to the evolving political significance of its economic, infrastructural, and legal dimensions. For Russia, developing the NSR is linked to securing economic interests, maintaining state control over a vital national transport artery, and safeguarding national interests in the Arctic. In US strategic discourse, the NSR is less frequently framed in security terms; instead, it is primarily viewed through the lens of Russian and Chinese presence, freedom of navigation, and the regional balance of power. While China’s approach remains predominantly economic in nature, its expanding presence and deepening cooperation with Russia are increasingly factored into external assessments of the changing strategic landscape in the Arctic. The study’s methodological framework draws on the Copenhagen School’s securitization theory—specifically the concepts developed by Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver—complemented by Thierry Balzacq’s contextual approach. It presents a comparative analysis of the approaches taken by Russia, the United States, and China regarding the NSR, based on an examination of strategic discourse, policy documents, and infrastructure development practices. The study’s scientific novelty lies in identifying the interconnections between shifts in the regional balance of power and changes in how Russia, the US, and China perceive the Arctic and the Northern Sea Route. The findings reveal that the securitization of the Arctic manifests differently in each state's approach to the NSR, reflecting their divergent conceptions of regional security. The shift in the regional balance of power following 2022 did not create the existing tensions surrounding the Northern Sea Route; however, it imbued them with added political significance. The concept of "infrastructure aggregation" is proposed as a distinct mechanism of securitization, whereby functionally diverse and predominantly civilian infrastructure elements are perceived by an external actor as a state’s aggregate material capability to maintain a long-term presence in the Arctic.