An estimate of the biotic contribution to the atmospheric CO2 increase based on direct measurements at Mauna Loa Observatory

The CO2 concentrations recorded at Mauna Loa Observatory from 1958–1983 were examined to detect the existence of any significant sources of CO2 other than fossil fuel combustion. The observed annual CO2 concentrations were compared with concentrations calculated assuming a number of hypothetical constant, nonfossil fuel emission scenarios added to the fossil fuel emissions. It was found that constant nonfossil fuel sources must have been 10% or less of the fossil fuel sources. This conclusion assumes that a constant fraction of the total emissions went into the oceans and that the nonfossil fuel emissions were invariant from year to year. When this latter restriction was relaxed, almost any nonfossil fuel source was possible if its history closely matched that of the fossil fuel emissions. We conclude that it is unlikely that biotic or other nonfossil fuel sources could have exceeded about 0.5 GT of carbon per year except in the unlikely event that they grew at a rate close to that of the fossil fuel emissions.