The Impact of Armed Conflicts on Child-Related Sustainable Development Goals: A Panel Analysis of 54 Countries

The increasing prevalence of armed conflict globally poses a significant barrier to achieving child-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Despite the ambitious targets of the 2030 Agenda, the 2023 SDG Progress Report shows that only 11% of child-specific targets have been achieved, revealing a substantial implementation gap. This study examines how armed conflict—measured by battle-related deaths—impedes progress toward child-related SDG targets, focusing on children’s survival, development, and protection. Using annual data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) and the World Development Indicators (WDI) for 54 countries over the period 2000–2023, this study employs fixed-effects and quantile regression models. Results show that armed conflict significantly impairs child-related SDG indicators, with disproportionately adverse effects in high-conflict settings. Specifically, an average of 2,900 battle-related deaths is associated with a 0.135% increase in neonatal mortality, a 0.151% rise in under-five mortality, and a 0.175% increase in maternal mortality. Furthermore, such conflict intensity corresponds with a 0.183% reduction in access to freshwater, a 0.135% increase in child stunting, and a 0.789% decline in primary school enrollment. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted policies in conflict-affected countries to safeguard children’s well-being and accelerate progress toward SDG2, SDG3, SDG4, and SDG6.