The estimation of natural mortality in Irish Sea plaice, Pleuronectes platessa L., using tagging methods

This paper addresses the question as to whether natural mortality (M) can be estimated reliably in a heavily exploited fish population. Several methods, including a new opitimization technique based on Pope's cohort model, were used to estimate M from a large series of tagging experiments carried out on the Irish Sea plaice off North Wales and Ireland during the early 1960s, and off North Wales during 1979 and 1980. The assumptions underlying the new method were: (i) that the product of initial survival after tagging and the reporting rate of recaptures (SB) was constant for all experiments, and (ii) that the number of recoveries were log‐normally distributed. Simulations showed that the estimator was robust to errors in input data. The SB values were low (0.37) but were more precise than the estimates of natural mortality for both sexes. The annual M values were 0.17 and 0.11 with standard errors 0.06 and 0.08 for males and females, respectively. The estimate of M for mature males was low, indicating a low M for older fish. The less precise estimate of M for females because of the inadequate dataset, and the higher M values obtained by applying traditional methods to the same dataset, indicated that a value of 0.2 is more appropriate for both sexes. Suggestions are made for designing and analysing tagging experiments to estimate M.