The procurement of Canada’s next fighter jet is a hot potato for the next government. While it was contested on strategic and economic grounds, few observers had doubted before the election of Justin Trudeau that Canada would end up buying the F-35 made by Lockheed Martin. In this paper, we analyze three European programs (the Eurofighter, Saab’s Gripen, Dassault’s Rafale) covering eight European countries (France, the United Kingdom, Germany, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland, Czech Republic and Hungary) in order to draw lessons for Canada. We analyze the procurement of fighter jets through three overlapping but distinct phases: strategic, commercial and political. Looking at the protracted acquisition process, we argue that the governments of non-aircraft-producing nations almost always confirm their initial strategic decision but end up significantly reducing the number of aircraft purchased. Using the European experience as a point of comparison, the Canadian story becomes predictable. It is not only about the F-35. It is about the procurement of fighter jets in general.
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Hoeffler et al. (2015) studied this question.
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