Green hydrogen for net zero 2050: Resource potential and electrolysis scenarios from Türkiye

This study presents a scenario-based evaluation of Türkiye's suitable renewable energy potential for large-scale green hydrogen production. Scenario 1 (potentially achievable) shows 540.31 TWh of renewable electricity could produce 5.23 Mton of green H 2 annually (18.69 billion Sm 3 natural gas equivalent), avoiding 40.08 to 47.07 Mton CO 2 /year. Scenario 2 (theoretical upper bound) reveals a 1189.42 TWh generation potential, yielding up to 22.39 Mton H 2 annually via SOEC (80.09 billion Sm 3 gas equivalent). This avoids 171.70 to 201.67 Mton CO 2 /year, offsetting up to approximately 52% of Türkiye's 2022 fossil-fuel emissions. Solar energy dominates with 120 GW rooftop PV potential; SOEC proves most efficient. Allocating these capacities to green hydrogen supports Net Zero 2050 targets and creates export potential. Using solar, wind, and geothermal resources for electrolysis decarbonizes heavy industry and increases regional energy security. This study provides a quantitative roadmap for policymakers and investors to scale production based on regional resources.