Developing Transformational Leadership in Higher Education Institutions: Evidence-Based Directions for Regional Universities in Karakalpakstan and Khorezm

Transformational leadership (TL) is associated with more effective governance in higher education institutions (HEIs); however, evidence-based approaches to its development in Uzbekistan's regional universities remain insufficiently explored. A survey of 403 faculty members and administrators in Karakalpakstan and Khorezm was conducted in August 2026 using an adapted Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire (α = 0.948). The data were analysed using nested ordinary least squares (OLS) models, and the identified areas for development were subsequently aligned with leadership-development theory and relevant international practices. The TL coefficient for governance effectiveness remained at 0.61 (p < 0.001) across model specifications. Three key areas for further development were identified: intellectual stimulation (3.95), transformational leadership among department heads (TLI = 3.93), and leadership conditions in branch institutions (β = −0.709). Accordingly, three evidence-based directions are proposed: a critical-thinking and action-learning programme, cascade mentoring for middle managers, and a two-tier development programme for branch heads based on an Institutional Maturity Index (IMI), incorporating sequencing, financing, and monitoring mechanisms. Scenario-based estimates suggest potential improvements in governance effectiveness ranging from 0.07 to 0.18 points. The findings indicate that individual-, positional-, and structural-level areas for development require differentiated, sequenced, and institutionally embedded interventions rather than a uniform training approach.