Short-term forecast-guided scheduling of hybrid AEL/PEMEL electrolyzer clusters for wind-PV hydrogen production: operation, degradation, and lifecycle economics

Water electrolysis can improve renewable electricity utilization, but fluctuating wind-PV input can increase state transitions, standby operation, overload exposure, and degradation in multi-electrolyzer systems. This study develops a forecast-guided rolling scheduling framework for a hybrid AEL/PEMEL electrolyzer cluster. Three-hour VMD-BP forecasts guide short-term operating decisions, while dynamic priority reordering uses accumulated operating hours and state transitions to balance unit utilization. Compared with daisy-chain and rotation strategies, CS3 increases annual hydrogen production to 54,081.24 kg and renewable power absorption to 37.25%, while reducing total state transitions to 11,186 and standby and overload durations to 97 h and 51 h, respectively. Using CS1 as the year 10 benchmark, the model estimates the first stack replacement in year 14 for both AEL and PEMEL. The lifecycle assessment gives an NPV of 1995.03 kUSD, a DPP of 12.24 years, and an LCOH of 5.00 USD/kg-H 2 . CS3 improves renewable utilization, operating continuity, and lifecycle performance.