Can new urbanization drive the green and low-carbon transformation of urban economies? Evidence from the Yangtze River economic belt in China

Against the backdrop of mitigating climate change and the need for sustainable urban development, understanding how new urbanization (NU) contributes to green and low-carbon transformation of urban economies (GLTUE) carries important theoretical and policy relevance. Drawing on resource allocation theory, this study uses panel data for 110 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) from 2010 to 2023 and applies two-way fixed-effects, mediation, and spatial Durbin models to examine the relationship between NU and GLTUE. The results indicate that: (1) NU is positively associated with GLTUE, with marked heterogeneity across regions and between resource-based cities (RBC) and non-resource-based cities (NRBC). (2) The mechanism analysis reveals that urban economic development level (UEDL) and urban financial development level (UFDL) mediate the positive effect of NU on GLTUE, while human capital level (HCL) operates as a significant negative indirect channel. (3) NU improves local GLTUE and generates positive spillover effects across economically connected cities. These findings suggest that urbanization policy should combine carbon mitigation with cleaner production and pollution control while accounting for regional conditions and resource dependence.