The relationship between SMEs' perception of global risks and sustainable innovation: The case of Türkiye

This study examines associations among global risk perceptions, institutional pressures, and sustainable innovation in Turkish SMEs engaged in international trade. Data were collected through an online survey conducted between 7 December 2024 and 20 March 2025, and 342 complete responses were analyzed. The measurement model was assessed using confirmatory factor analysis, and parallel multiple mediation was estimated in jamovi using 5,000 bias-corrected bootstrap resamples. Bootstrap confidence intervals excluded zero for the indirect associations of social and environmental risk perceptions with sustainable innovation through normative pressure. Indirect effects through regulatory and cognitive pressure were not statistically significant. Social and environmental risk perceptions had positive total associations with sustainable innovation, whereas the total association of geopolitical risk perception was not significant. Geopolitical risk received the highest mean score and environmental risk the lowest. The findings provide limited evidence consistent with an indirect role of normative pressure, but the cross-sectional design does not establish causal mechanisms. The results indicate a need for carefully evaluated institutional support for sustainability-oriented innovation in SMEs.