Rethinking Prevent: Addressing Flaws in the UK Counterterrorism Risk Assessment Through the Pathway to Violence Model

This article critically examines the United Kingdom's Prevent strategy, arguing that its assessment mechanisms are fundamentally flawed. Current reliance on a risk assessment focused on vulnerability and susceptibility to radicalisation is ineffective at identifying individuals on escalating trajectories toward targeted violence, leading to significant false negatives. A scoping review of 15 counterterrorism frameworks identified the Pathway to Violence Model (PTVM) as a potential augmentation tool. The discussion outlines how PTVM's six-stage evidence-based framework enables a shift toward a contextualized, threat-based approach, thereby improving triage and resource prioritization. The 2024 Southport attack is analysed to illustrate how it can aid the prevention of the identified systemic issues and demonstrates the PTVM’s utility in preventing future failures.