Modelling the implementation gap in education reform: A Policy–Implementation–Outcome (PIO) Framework

This study addresses the persistent implementation gap in education reform by examining how policy design, implementation processes, and digital readiness are structurally related to student outcomes. Despite extensive policy expansion under Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG 4), a disconnect remains between policy intentions and classroom realities, particularly in decentralized and socio-culturally diverse systems. Using a mixed-methods approach, this study integrates Structural Equation Modeling–Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) with qualitative data from focus group discussions and interviews involving 371 education stakeholders. The findings indicate that Implementation Fidelity showed the largest direct association with Student Outcomes among the four modeled variables (β = 0.412), although Policy Design Quality explained only a weak proportion of variance in Implementation Fidelity (R 2 = 0.127); the largest single structural coefficient was observed for the Implementation Fidelity–Digital Readiness path (β = 0.481). The five direct structural relationships were statistically significant, whereas the proposed serial indirect relationship was not independently verified and is therefore not interpreted as confirmed mediation. The study advances a Policy–Implementation–Outcome (PIO) model that positions Digital Readiness downstream of Implementation Fidelity rather than as an independent predictor or moderator. Given the cross-sectional design, the findings are interpreted as structural associations rather than causal or temporally established relationships. The study suggests that policy effectiveness depends not only on design quality but also on the alignment between policy design, implementation capacity, and contextual conditions, offering implications for education reform in complex and decentralized systems and a basis for further confirmatory and cross-national testing.