Modeling the impacts of land use change in a large coastal urban-rural basin

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

This study used the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to assess the hydrological response of a large coastal urban-rural basin under different land-use scenarios. Drainage networks and sub-basins were automatically delineated, while land-use maps provided key physical parameters. Model performance yielded Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.57 for calibration and 0.50 for validation over one month of moderate rainfall. Between 1985 and 2024, urban area increased by 24%, accompanied by a strong vegetation-loss trend (R2 = 0.98). Projecting this trend over the following 20 years, median daily flow increased by approximately 5%, while peak daily flow rose by up to 7%. In contrast, a greening scenario reduced conduit runoff by approximately 20% relative to the trend scenario. Sub-basins with greater vegetation cover exhibited significantly lower overflow. Overall, SWMM proved useful for evaluating land-use scenarios and supporting green infrastructure planning in rapidly developing coastal cities.