We compare barrier probabilities implied by option chains (Deribit, Yahoo Finance) with Kalshi prediction-market quotes on the same payoff, following 4.03 million contract-snapshots and 1,665 events to settlement. On crypto neither forecast is more accurate, so discrepancies are not evidence of prediction-market error. Discrepancies are hardest to trade where they look largest, consistent with the winner's curse, and no edge is established at taker execution.
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Tolmatskiy et al. (2026) studied this question.
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