Predicting staggered carbon peaking in the logistics industry: Evidence from China's new international land-sea trade corridor

Under China's carbon peaking target, logistics-related emissions require close examination because the sector links regional production and consumption and remains energy-intensive. This study establishes a framework covering emission accounting, influencing factor identification, scenario forecasting, and staggered peaking assessment. Focusing on 12 provinces in China's New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor, we trace logistics-related carbon emissions from 1997 to 2021 and project their trajectories for 2022-2040 under business-as-usual, low-carbon, and high-development pathways. By linking regional forecasts with provincial peak timing, the framework extends carbon-peaking analysis beyond a single aggregate turning point. The results show that: (1) Regional logistics emissions rose from 29.56 million tonnes (Mt) in 1997 to 205.46 Mt in 2021, an increase of about 5.95 times; Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang were the largest emitters in 2021. (2) Ten potential determinants are examined, among which population scale and urbanization are the dominant forces increasing emissions, whereas energy intensity remains a major barrier to mitigation. (3) The regional peak is projected at 229.11 Mt in 2032 under the low-carbon scenario, but is postponed to 2037 and 2038 under the business-as-usual and high-development scenarios, reaching 258.68 Mt and 284.33 Mt, respectively. Nine provinces peak before 2030 under the low-carbon scenario, whereas staggered peaking is less distinct under the other scenarios. (4) Provinces are grouped according to the stability of their peaking outcomes across scenarios, and tailored mitigation strategies are suggested. The framework supports differentiated mitigation in regional logistics systems and can be adapted for use in other countries and regions.