Catalysts or constraints? The dual role of natural resources and greenfield investment amid geopolitical risk

Rapid urbanisation, industrialisation, population growth, and fast economic expansion have made emerging economies significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. This study assesses the impact of key economic and environmental factors on economic development, emphasising the role of green growth as an effective means to achieve sustainable development. Specifically, it examines the effect of greenfield investment (GFI), geopolitical risk (GPR), natural resources (TNR), and renewable energy consumption (GET) on green growth (GG) across 17 emerging economies from 2003 to 2022. Utilising advanced panel estimation techniques, the study concludes that GFI and GET contribute positively to green growth, whereas GPR adversely affects green growth. Similarly, the greater dependence on natural resources significantly hampers green growth, thereby confirming the presence of the ‘resource curse’ hypothesis in our analysis. Moreover, the interaction between GPR and TNR significantly dampens green growth, while the interaction between GPR and GFI further exacerbates this adverse effect. Based on these results, the study suggests that policymakers should promote greenfield investment in sustainable sectors, strengthen natural resource management through robust regulations, and mitigate geopolitical risk by diversifying international partnerships to support long-term sustainable development goals.