An integrated framework for dual-scale assessment of recyclable waste resource potential and environmental–economic benefits in a Chinese megacity

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Municipal solid waste management is a key pathway for urban carbon mitigation and resource efficiency, yet recyclable waste generation across different urban sources remains insufficiently quantified. This study develops a dual-scale analytical framework to assess recyclable waste resource potential and environmental–economic benefits in a Chinese megacity. The framework integrates household-source measurement with municipal life-source recyclable generation prediction to characterize recyclable resource potential from complementary accounting perspectives. Household-source recyclables are quantified using two rounds of household surveys conducted in summer and winter 2025, involving 448 households, combined with Monte Carlo simulation, while municipal life-source recyclables are predicted using machine-learning models with multi-source socioeconomic variables. Scenario-based life cycle assessment is further applied to evaluate carbon and economic performance under virgin and recycling pathways. The results demonstrate substantial differences between the two accounting scales. Household-source recyclable generation was estimated at 251,800, 966,500, and 1,103,500 tons for waste glass, plastics, and paper, respectively, whereas municipal life-source recyclable generation reached 614,760, 3,100,000, and 3,109,600 tons, corresponding to 2.44-, 3.21-, and 2.82-fold higher estimates. These differences reflect the broader system boundary of municipal life-source accounting, which incorporates recyclable flows beyond household sources, rather than indicating a direct inconsistency between the two accounting scales. The environmental and economic assessments further reveal strong material-dependent heterogeneity. Waste plastics and paper exhibited more stable environmental–economic co-benefits, whereas waste glass showed greater sensitivity to collection efficiency, transportation distance, and market conditions. The proposed framework provides a complementary multi-scale approach for robust recyclable waste accounting and supports data-driven urban low-carbon management.