The moderating role of competitive intelligence in the international market selection and export performance relationship

Purpose This study examines whether competitive intelligence (CI) strengthens the relationship between international market selection (IMS) and export performance (EP). It argues that CI functions not only as an input to market selection but also as a post-entry execution capability. Design/methodology/approach A sequential mixed-methods design was used. First, 12 interviews with export professionals clarified the mechanisms linking CI, IMS, and EP. Second, survey data from 113 Turkish exporters were analyzed using PLS-SEM. Findings IMS and CI both have positive direct effects on EP. More importantly, CI positively moderates the IMS–EP relationship, indicating that systematic IMS produces stronger performance returns when CI capability is higher. Originality/value The study advances a decision–execution explanation of EP by showing that the value of systematic market selection depends partly on firms' ability to sense, interpret, and adapt after entry. It clarifies CI's role as both a direct capability and a moderator of the IMS–EP relationship.