Stochastic Model for Language Extinction Dynamics of Hausa Against Kanuri in Nigeria

Language shift and weakening intergenerational transmission pose important challenges for indigenous languages in multilingual societies. This paper assesses Kanuri vulnerability under Hausa influence using questionnaire data and complementary stochastic models. The study uses 386 respondents and examines language competence, reported reasons for non-transmission, Poisson/branching-process estimates, an absorbing Markov chain, and a survey-based SIR proxy. Hausa reported competence was 97.96% speaking, 93.20% reading and 94.56% writing, while Kanuri reported 75.22%, 60.53% and 58.77%, respectively. Kanuri first-generation transmission probability was 0.699 compared with 0.853 for Hausa. The Markov analysis gave expected persistence of 3.325 generations for Kanuri and 6.825 for Hausa under the first-generation estimates. The survey-based SIR proxy for Kanuri was 4.297 in the first generation and 2.537 in the second. The findings consistently indicate greater vulnerability of Kanuri to weakening intergenerational transmission than Hausa in the observed sample. The results support strengthening parent-to-child transmission, Kanuri literacy, education, media and community use. The mathematical values are model-based and survey-based indicators, not guaranteed population-wide extinction.