Entrepreneurial resilience and small business recovery: A Delphi study

Small business failure prediction has moved beyond financial ratios, yet entrepreneurial resilience remains poorly operationalized in predictive practice. In a database of 520 Dutch SME viability audits, more than half of businesses assessed as non-viable were still operating three years later. A subsequent qualitative study found owner-level behavioral and psychological factors decisive for recovery. This study aims to operationalize these findings by examining which identified factors experts regard as important for recovery, and which are sufficiently observable for forward-looking viability assessment. A two-round Delphi method was applied across three expert panels, drawn from restructuring practice, financial risk management, and academic resilience research. Strong consensus emerged on the importance of entrepreneurial behavior, adaptive crisis response, self-efficacy, and support networks, while personal background and firm characteristics were rated far less decisive. A persistent tension was identified: the factors most valued for explaining recovery are frequently regarded the least accessible in predictive contexts.