IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 31.3% to 36.0% (+4.7pp, n=453) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a phase-distance filter of ≤2° would have excluded the three LOSS trades (XAUUSD SHORT 4048.74, USDJPY SHORT 157.883, GBPUSD SHORT 1.34508) and the one REJECTED/open USDCHF SHORT, assuming their phase distances exceeded the threshold. That removes 3 losses from 10 trades, shifting the window from 5W/4L/1open to 5W/1L/1open — a win-rate jump from ~55% to ~83% on closed trades. However, it would also have excluded the XAUUSD LONG WIN (4270.17) if its phase distance was wide, which would reduce the PnL gain; net effect is likely +2 to +3 wins, but the sample is tiny and dominated by a single day (Aug 4) where three losses clustered. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a tight phase filter typically reduces trade frequency by 30–50%, which can improve win rate but may cut total PnL if th Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Andrew Stewart Caldin (2026) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: