On the Predictive Efficiency of Past Performance and Physical Ability: The Case of the National Football League

This study investigated the criterion-related validity of past performance and physical ability tests over time in a physically demanding context, the National Football League (NFL). Results suggested that an indicator of past performance, collegiate performance, engendered a stronger relationship with future NFL performance than a variety of physical ability tests administered during the NFL Combine. Unlike physical ability, past performance remained a valid predictor across four years of the criterion domain; however, the validity coefficients eventually deteriorated over time, following a simplex pattern commonly found with general mental ability tests. Implications germane to staffing research and practice are discussed.