How homophily and sociality propensity influence stakeholder diversity in wildfire risk management networks: an ERGM analysis

Recent wildfire management strategies emphasize stakeholder engagement in risk management and prevention as a means of enhancing systemic safety and operational reliability. Despite its growing importance, guidance on how to effectively implement such engagement remains limited. This study addresses this gap by combining Social Network Analysis (SNA) and Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) to examine a sample of 256 stakeholders across seven wildfire management networks in different European countries. The objective is to identify the propensity of stakeholders to form ties, network diversity and structural dependency within wildfire risk management networks. The results make two key contributions to risk and resilience in crisis and emergency management body of knowledge. First, we show that sociality – the propensity of stakeholders to establish connections – is shaped by stakeholder profiles. Second, we find that homophily – the propensity of stakeholders to connect with similar others – emerges across multiple categories alongside structural network effects. We discuss the dual role of these mechanisms that facilitate engagement while simultaneously constraining the diversity of stakeholder types. The findings invite policymakers promoting stakeholder engagement and stakeholder diversity as strategies in risk management and crisis response to critically reflect about the mechanisms through which such engagement can be effectively fostered.