Planning for Future Mega-Sport Events in Emerging Host Cities: Site Suitability Assessment for Erbil as an Exploratory Case

Mega-sport events are powerful catalysts for urban transformation, yet their long-term success and sustainability depend heavily on their locations. However, site-selection frameworks for such events in the case of emerging host cities remains under-examined by the current scholarship. The purpose of this study is to present an evidence-based site-selection framework that ensures the site’s suitability to host mega-sport events in Erbil—the rapidly developing capital city of Iraqi Kurdistan that has never hosted such events—as an exploratory case. A framework has been developed to identify suitable sites for hosting future mega-sport events based on spatial criteria that were organized into five thematic groups: natural environment, built environment, tourism and hospitality, accessibility and transportation, and safety and emergency services. An expert choice survey (n = 15) using a Fuzzy AHP framework was conducted to decide criteria weights. This was integrated with GIS weighted overlay across the 2746.82 km2 planning area to produce a five-class suitability map. Erbil’s central-western core proved to be most suitable. A one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis confirmed the robustness of this spatial pattern to weight uncertainty. This replicable framework provides a planning guidance aligned with SDGs 11 and 9 for Erbil and other cities heading towards hosting their early mega-sport events.