Predicting the Potential Suitable Distribution of Tomato Brown Rugose Fruit Virus in China Using a BIOMOD2 Ensemble Model

Tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV) is an emerging tobamovirus that threatens tomato production and seedling trade. We used a BIOMOD2 ensemble to model present and future environmental suitability in China from 35 screened occurrence records, climatic predictors, and agricultural context data. Climate projections were based on BCC-CSM2-MR under SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 for the 2050s and 2090s. The ensemble achieved calibration TSS = 0.831 and AUC/ROC = 0.958. Spatial-block evaluation was lower and more variable, so the calibration metrics do not demonstrate equally strong geographic transferability. Bio6 and bio15 were the leading predictors, followed by bio5 and bio13. At the primary AUCroc threshold of 0.441, the current suitable area was 44.35 × 104 km2 (approximately 4.62% of China’s land area), concentrated in warm, humid eastern and southern regions. Future estimates depend on the selected GCM and binary threshold. The maps identify environmental suitability and monitoring priorities rather than epidemic probability.