Brief communication: Rise of the Guadalupe River – a multifaceted post event analysis of 4 July 2025, flood in Central Texas

The flash flooding across Central Texas on 4 July 2025, caused more than 130 fatalities and property losses exceeding USD 20 billion. The objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the NOAA operational flood forecasting pipeline, including Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts, National Water Model short-range streamflow forecasts, and Office of Water Prediction flood inundation mapping during this catastrophic event, and to characterize how forecast skill and impact-based predictions varied with forecast lead time at gauged and ungauged locations. Using the Operational National Water Model short-range streamflow forecast product, we generated 306 forecasted flood inundation maps between 3 and 4 July 2025. For evaluation, we constructed an inundation extent benchmark derived from USGS high water marks. Both impact based and skill-based assessments are presented.