Greening Trade Globalization? Evidence from De Facto and De Jure Trade Integration Across CEE EU Member States

Trade globalization is increasingly being reassessed through the lens of the green transition, as openness to international markets does not necessarily imply environmentally sustainable integration. The objective of this study was to assess whether trade globalization became greener across 11 Central and Eastern European (CEE) EU member states between 2004 and 2024 by distinguishing de facto from de jure trade integration and linking these dimensions to economic structure, environmental-goods trade, greenhouse-gas footprints, and energy-transition exposure. The revised macro-level database combined World Development Indicators with the KOF Trade Globalization de facto and de jure indices, UNCTAD environmental-goods trade data, OECD Greenhouse-Gas Footprints, and complementary Eurostat environmental-economy indicators. A firm-level validation based on LSEG Workspace data for 2020–2024 covered 73 firms across 10 economic sectors. The empirical strategy combined standardized heatmaps with hierarchical clustering, stratified association plots, export–import asymmetry, energy-exposure profiles, environmental-goods and carbon-footprint comparisons, and a regularized Graphical Gaussian Model (GGM). The GGM was interpreted strictly as a network of conditional associations rather than causal effects. The findings indicated marked cross-country and cross-sector heterogeneity: formal trade integration and high openness were not sufficient for greener outcomes unless accompanied by cleaner production structures, stronger renewable-energy deployment, lower energy vulnerability, and more favorable environmental-goods and emissions profiles. The firm-level evidence further showed that aggregate country indicators concealed substantial sectoral differences in carbon and energy intensity.