This report examines how farmers enrolled in the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs receive their payments for the 2025 crop in October 2026. Using USDA Farm Service Agency data available as of October 1, 2026, this brief estimates that North Dakota farms will receive approximately $678 million for the 2025 crop, compared with about $26 million for the 2024 crop. Wheat accounts for about 60 percent of the 2025 total. The increase reflects both lower 2025 wheat and corn prices and the more generous program rules under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which raised reference prices, the ARC-CO guarantee, and the payment cap, and provided the higher of the ARC-CO or PLC payment for 2025. Running each year's data under both sets of program rules indicates that the new policy environment had the larger effect. Estimates are before adjusted gross income and payment limits.
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Dylan Turner (2026) studied this question.
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