The interaction analysis of social conflicts linked with water stress in Iranian cities

Water-related challenges have significant social repercussions within Iran’s urbanization system. Due to the complex and multi-dimensional nature of these issues, this research redefines the interrelationships between social conflicts and water stress in Iranian cities through structural analysis conducted using Mic-Mac model. To identify 24 potential conflicts and their interconnections, we conducted interviews with a group of 50 municipal and academic experts from water-stressed cities. The findings indicate that mass migration, the expansion of informal settlements, the evacuation of small border towns, and interprovincial tensions are among the most likely forms of social conflict associated with water stress in Iranian cities. These consequences, together with their feedback mechanisms, may become major drivers of escalating social instability within Iran’s urban system. Considering these findings, it is essential to develop adaptation strategies for water-scarce cities, particularly with regard to land-use planning and future urban development in Iranian cities.