Will the Cost Curve Bend, Even without Reform?

If there is one certainty about the health care sector, it is that its costs increase over time. U.S. health care spending has more than doubled as a share of national income over the past half-century, and most forecasters believe that the steep growth will continue. The Congressional Budget Office, for example, projects that health care spending will account for one third of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by the middle of this century, up from 17% today. In their latest report, the Medicare trustees have forecast similar growth rates for Medicare costs.But what if this conventional wisdom . . .