Toward a context-specific model of social resilience to climate change as global transition in arid border regions

Background Climate change poses escalating risks to the environmental and social stability of arid and semi-arid regions, where weak institutional capacity and socio-economic fragility exacerbate community vulnerability. Understanding the mechanisms of social resilience—the ability of societies to anticipate, absorb, and recover from climatic shocks—is therefore essential for sustainable adaptation. This study aims to develop a context-specific model of social resilience to climate change in Sistan and Baluchistan Province, located in southeastern Iran, a region highly exposed to drought, transboundary water crises, and socio-political marginalization. Methods Employing the grounded theory approach of Corbin and Strauss (2015), qualitative data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 15 experts and practitioners in geography, environmental management, and public policy. The data were analyzed using open, axial, and selective coding in MAXQDA software to identify causal conditions, contextual conditions, intervening conditions, strategies, and consequences shaping resilience. Results The core category emerging from the analysis was the improvement of state–nation relations, driven by causal dimensions such as meritocracy, good governance, and participatory management. Contextual conditions included infrastructural capacity and public awareness, while intervening conditions, such as mismanagement, deprivation, and weak human resources, hindered resilience. The resulting model highlights that enhancing trust, transparency, and participatory governance can strengthen social resilience and reduce vulnerability to climate risks. Conclusion The findings contribute to the theoretical understanding of resilience in the fragile contexts of border regions and offer policy insights for integrating social and institutional dimensions into national climate adaptation strategies.