Spatial zoning of Acrocomia aculeata for sustainable biofuel planning and zero-deforestation strategies

Sustainable biofuel expansion requires identifying landscapes where new feedstocks can be cultivated without accelerating deforestation, a major source of greenhouse gas emissions in tropical regions. Acrocomia aculeata (macaúba), a high-oil perennial palm native to the Neotropics, is a promising feedstock for low-carbon fuels such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), and biodiesel. However, its large-scale potential remains uncertain because climatic suitability, land-use constraints, and future climate change have not been jointly assessed across its full geographic range. Here, we integrate species distribution modeling with land-use and ecological-constraint mapping to estimate present climatic suitability, identify suitable areas on converted land, and project shifts under future climate scenarios across the Americas. The framework combines current and projected climate, topographic and edaphic variables with pasture and protected-area masks. Under current climate conditions, excluded areas cover 82.4% of South America and 57.7% of regions north of South America. Highly suitable anthropized lands—those with optimal climate and already converted uses such as pastures—represent a smaller but relevant share (1.6% in South America and 2.9% north of South America). The Minimum Temperature of the Coldest Month is the most influential predictor, highlighting strong sensitivity to low-temperature thresholds. Future projections under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 maintain the general suitability pattern but expand excluded areas (up to 86.8–89.4% in South America and 70.2% north of South America) and reduce highly suitable anthropized lands. By distinguishing high- and moderate-suitability zones under current and future climates, this study provides a practical framework for climate-aligned bioenergy planning.