A Fertility Transition in Sub‐Saharan Africa?

There is now substantial evidence for fertility decline in the majority of countries of sub-Saharan Africa. This paper reviews that evidence, identifying the large variation in the extent of change, particularly between Southern Africa and West Africa, and sets it in the context of the demographic transition model, concluding that it is not yet clear whether or to what extent the recent African experience and likely future trends are consistent with the experience of demographic change in other continental areas. The discussion examines issues for theory (how unique is Africa?), for method (what are the limitations of dependence on large-scale, standardised demographic surveys for fertility data?) and for policy (how have the survey data been used and interpreted to formulate population policy?) raised by the recent African experience.