Brazil is the most hyperendemic country for dengue, with historically dominant circulation of DENV-1 and DENV-2. Bayesian phylodynamic analyses of 489 Brazilian DENV-3 genomes, including 84 newly generated sequences, reveal a recent and sustained increase in the effective population size of DENV-3 associated with the recent introduction and expansion of the 3III_B.3.2 lineage. This increase coincides with a sharp rise in the proportion of laboratory-confirmed dengue cases attributed to DENV-3 among records with available serotype information from 2024 onwards and a shift in serotype dynamics in 2025, suggesting a change in serotype distribution and a potential risk of renewed DENV-3 outbreaks, particularly in populations with limited prior exposure to this serotype.
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Pereira et al. (2026) studied this question.
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