Gender differences in disaster mortality and risk perception: evidence from floods and landslides in Italy

Studying human consequences caused by landslides and floods is important to understand their impact and to investigate public risk perception We analysed a catalogue of 1,188 landslide and 752 flood fatalities that occurred in Italy during the 60-year period 1965–2024, for which information on sex, age, and circumstances of death was available. Observed fatalities were compared with expected distributions modelled from census data by sex and age for two non-overlapping 30-year periods. Observed fatalities were compared with expected distributions modelled from census data by sex and age for two non-overlapping 30-year periods. With the exception of children, male fatalities were consistently over-represented relative to the census-based demographic expectations, whereas female fatalities were generally under-represented. To investigate possible relationships with risk perception, we analysed responses from four nationwide surveys conducted in 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2023. Women reported slightly higher levels of self-perceived exposure to natural and technological risks than men, whereas no substantial gender differences emerged in the perceived threat posed by landslides and floods to personal safety. The national-scale analysis was complemented by a regional comparison between perceived threat and historical mortality. Regional Threat Indices were calculated separately for floods and landslides across the 20 Italian regions. A moderate and statistically significant positive association emerged between perceived flood threat and flood mortality, whereas no association was found for landslides. Overall, the results highlight a persistent mismatch between gender patterns in mortality and perceived personal threat and support targeted, gender-sensitive risk communication and disaster risk reduction strategies.