On Making Flexible Projections of Age-Specific Net Migration

Traditional methods of projecting age-specific migration for local areas are based on inflexible migration patterns. Ideally, forecast results should be isomorphic with the intent of the forecaster, so flexible models are called for. To this end, a parameterized model that incorporates directional flows is presented along with a theoretical scheme for its operation. It is asserted that the new model provides much of the needed flexibility, but at the cost of added complexity.