Ranking Some Global Forecasts with the Kagan Information Score

Research Article| June 13, 2018 Ranking Some Global Forecasts with the Kagan Information Score Peter Bird Peter Bird aDepartment of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095‐1567 U.S.A., pbird@epss.ucla.edu Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Peter Bird aDepartment of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095‐1567 U.S.A., pbird@epss.ucla.edu Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 13 Jun 2018 Online Issn: 1938-2057 Print Issn: 0895-0695 © Seismological Society of America Seismological Research Letters (2018) 89 (4): 1272–1276. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180029 Article history First Online: 13 Jun 2018 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Peter Bird; Ranking Some Global Forecasts with the Kagan Information Score. Seismological Research Letters 2018;; 89 (4): 1272–1276. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180029 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search ABSTRACT The Kagan (2009) information score I1 is a simple metric for the relative success of the map patterns of any seismicity forecasts with the same spatial extent and the same earthquake‐selection rules. Because it does not require declustering of either the forecast or the test catalog, it is particularly appropriate for forecasts of total seismicity. Three years of prospective testing have given consistent rankings of four global models of shallow seismicity, demonstrating the expected superiority of the Global Earthquake Activity Rate model v.1 (GEAR1) hybrid forecast relative to its smoothed seismicity and tectonic parent forecasts. Accumulation of I1 scores and their covariances over a number of consecutive test periods naturally leads to estimated significance of each ranking, so continuing testing is desirable. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.