Exploiting dynamics of electricity–hydrogen–carbon markets using adaptive operating rules for hybrid energy systems

Electricity markets have traditionally shaped the operating strategies of hybrid energy systems (HESs) integrating hydropower, wind, and photovoltaic resources. Meanwhile, the rapid emergence of hydrogen and carbon markets is transforming system operation by linking electricity supply, hydrogen production, and carbon-related revenues. However, existing electricity–hydrogen operating rules do not account for how pathway-dependent carbon values alter the allocation of renewable electricity between grid delivery and hydrogen production. This study embeds pathway-dependent carbon valuation into the shared energy-allocation decision, allowing the carbon signal to reshape the relative benefits of grid delivery and hydrogen production and propagate into hybrid system operation and operating-rule parameters. An operation-mediated price-feedback framework is incorporated into the long-term operation model to maximize operating benefit and supply assurance. The optimized results are then synthesized into adaptive operating rules through a parameterization–simulation–optimization framework. A case study of the Ertan hydro–hydrogen–wind–photovoltaic system shows that the reservoir release is the key decision variable in rule formulation. The derived optimal operating rules achieve 616.03 million USD in operating benefit and a 98.96% assurance rate, improving conventional rules by 14.94% and 10.79%. These results demonstrate that adaptive operating rules can effectively exploit electricity–hydrogen–carbon market dynamics, thereby enhancing the energy use efficiency of HESs.