Australian elected representatives underestimate public support for climate action

Current climate change mitigation policies are insufficient to limit warming. One reason for insufficient policy response may be that policymakers, who are responsible for implementing climate action, underestimate public support for stronger measures. We examined whether Australian local government members ( N = 211) hold accurate second-order beliefs about public views on climate change mitigation by comparing their estimates across four dimensions of climate opinion with recent national survey benchmarks. Findings show that elected members underestimate public support for stronger government action (61% estimated, 83% actual, d = 0.87) and public willingness to contribute financially to climate mitigation (32% estimated, 56% actual, d = 0.71), and to a smaller extent public worry about climate change (67% estimated, 73% actual, d = 0.20). Estimates of public support for reducing future fossil fuel use were accurate (68% estimated, 66% actual, d = 0.07). Underestimation was larger among members of right-leaning parties, who underestimated public views on all four dimensions, whereas left-leaning members overestimated climate worry and support for reducing fossil fuel use. Australian local government members therefore misperceive public opinion on most, though not all, aspects of climate action. Misperception at the local government level, where much climate policy is delivered, is therefore a plausible contributor to the distance between public demand and policy response.