Key result
Extreme temperatures linked to ~28,000 global deaths from hypertension-associated chronic kidney disease in 2021.
Why the study?
Chronic kidney disease, especially hypertension-associated CKD, is a major global health burden exacerbated by temperature extremes, but trends and projections related to temperature-attributable HCKD burden were unclear.
Observational
Yes
Global mortality and disease burden for hypertension-associated chronic kidney disease attributable to temperature extremes have increased since 1990, highlighting a growing climate-related health threat particularly for males, the elderly, and populations in low- and middle-income regions.
May heighten vigilance for HCKD during temperature extremes; leaves open whether mitigation strategies alter attributable burden.
Introduction: Chronic kidney disease (CKD), particularly hypertension-associated CKD (HCKD), is a significant global health burden, with hypertension and diabetes as leading causes. Rising global temperatures and climate variability exacerbate HCKD risks by triggering mechanisms like dehydration, renal ischemia, and increased blood pressure. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data and predictive models, this study examines trends in HCKD attributable to high and low temperatures. Method: Drawing on data from the 2021 GBD Study, this study focuses on HCKD burden from temperature extremes. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDRs) were analyzed using descriptive statistics and trend evaluations through estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Exponential smoothing (ES) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) approaches were adopted for predictive modeling. p < 0.05 is considered statistically significant, with uncertainty intervals enhancing robustness. Result: In 2021, 5,013 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: −117 to 12,053) deaths and 117,175 (95% UI: 4,333–270,676) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from HCKD attributable to high temperature were recorded worldwide, with increases in ASMR (EAPC: 3.43) and ASDR (EAPC: 3.18) since 1990. Low temperature caused 22,892 deaths and 420,310 DALYs, with slower ASMR and ASDR growth. Men consistently exhibited higher ASMR and ASDR than women. Mortality and burden peaked in the 95+ age group and varied across sociodemographic index (SDI) regions, with the highest burdens in low-SDI areas. ARIMA and ES models project continued growth in HCKD burden due to temperature, though growth rates may decelerate by 2050. Conclusion: Males, the elderly, and people living in low- and middle-income countries need to be particularly concerned about the threat of HCKD attributed to high and low temperatures.
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Kong et al. (2026) conducted an observational in Hypertension-associated Chronic Kidney Disease (HCKD). High and low temperatures was evaluated on Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from HCKD attributable to temperature extremes. In 2021, high and low temperatures were responsible for an estimated 5,013 and 22,892 deaths worldwide from hypertension-associated chronic kidney disease, with the burden increasing since 1990.
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